Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Each writes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
